Latest politics odds and news: Reform favourites to pick up fifth MP in Runcorn by-election

Reform UK have a long way to go if they are to justify hopes of challenging to be the largest party at the next general election, but Nigel Farage's party are at least expected to regain a fifth MP in Thursday's Runcorn and Helsby by-election, according to bookmakers.

Reform won five seats in the 2024 general election, but were reduced to four last month when Rupert Lowe was suspended from the party. The by-election in Runcorn and Helsby was triggered after ex-Labour MP Mike Amesbury stood down after receiving a suspended prison sentence for punching a man in the street.

Amesbury had a majority of 14,696 after taking 52.9 per cent of the vote at last year's general election but the nature of his departure, coupled with the traditional poor record of governing parties in by-elections, means Labour candidate Karen Shore is available at 5-2 with Paddy Power to win the seat.

Reform finished second with 18.1 per cent of the vote last July, but their candidate Sarah Pochin is a best-priced 4-9 to become an MP.

With the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens all available at 175-1 or better, it's a two-horse race according to bookmakers. Hills are offering 4-6 that the Tories receive over 9.5 per cent of the vote in Runcorn – they got 16 per cent last time – and 11-10 for under 9.5 per cent.

Labour remain favourites to win most seats at the next general election at 6-4, with the Conservatives and Reform both at 9-4, but it's 8-11 that the next national vote is not until 2029, with the current government expected to serve the maximum term. However, a general election this year has been cut from 25-1 to 20-1 by Hills and is only 12-1 with Ladbrokes.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is 4-6 with Ladbrokes to be the next major party leader to leave their position and she is 1-3 not to lead the party into the next election, with James Cleverly and Robert Jenrick the 4-1 joint-favourites to succeed her. 

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